[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N17W 1N26W 1N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM EQ25W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 3N30W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NW JUST OFF THE
COAST OF THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N91W TO OVER THE SE US
OVER MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OVER
FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS N MEXICO/TEXAS AND OVER THE S US. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH A SURFACE LOW OVER SW NORTH CAROLINA
DROPPING A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OVER THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO LOUISIANA TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N96W...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW INTO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W BECOMING AGAIN STATIONARY ALONG
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...ONLY
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS ENJOYING
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY N OF 25N AS IT CROSSES THE GULF EXCEPT
SLIDING DOWN THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF MEXICO AND OVER THE FAR W
GULF. THIS COULD GIVE THE N GULF THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W TO COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION. DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED PATCHES OF SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES. STRONG E TRADE
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT STILL RATHER GUSTY. NO BIG
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG E
TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N57W SW ALONG 25N65W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W TO A 1020 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N51W BENDING SW TO E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 22N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE W OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH...THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 23N-29N TO 53W. W OF THE TROUGH IS A PACKET OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N75W. REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS RATHER BROAD WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE
HAVING LITTLE INFLUENCE IS GENERATING ANY SHOWERS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 50W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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