[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N2W 2N17W 1N34W 2N52W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 7W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 7W AND FROM 8N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W
NW OVER MEXICO THROUGH 23N100W GIVING THE GULF NW UPPER FLOW.
PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS N MEXICO AND
TEXAS TO OVER THE NW GULF. HOWEVER...THE GULF HAS BEEN UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT HAVING THAT MUCH
OF AN EFFECT LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF TO NEAR 25N94W. THE NEXT FRONT IN
STORE FOR THE GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO TEXAS AND WILL ENTER
THE GULF LATER TODAY...SKIRTING THE N GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN SAT INTO SUN. IN THE MEANTIME...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17N91W SW TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 9N76W GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW UPPER FLOW. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BROUGHT
IN WITH THE TRADES. STRONG E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A GALE WARNING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN THE TRADES BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N W OF
42W TO THE E COAST OF THE US. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 21N44W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 44W
FROM 15N-27N. A WEAKER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N61W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH
AN AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER NE FLORIDA. A
1023 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N61W. AN ILL-DEFINED
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE N OF 32N. SHARP UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 16N31W NNW TO
BEYOND 32N41W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR IN PLACE...THE AREA CAN ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
BEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 20W WITH
THE UPPER LOW WELL INLAND OVER W AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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