[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W 2N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 7W-15W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
PROVIDING 10-15 KT SELY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN
AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.  MORE BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF AND THE TEXAS COAST N OF 23N AND
W OF 93W.  WARM FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY W TO NW FLOW
OVER THE GULF.  STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE N OF 27N
WITH 70-90 KT.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT
FOR TEXAS AND THE NW GULF WHERE PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MOVING E.
EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SOME CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 20-25 KT TRADES.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND ALONG THE N
VENEZUELA COAST.  THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST OF E CUBA PRODUCING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NWLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE AT THE SURFACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...HOWEVER...WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA NE COAST PRODUCING BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 79W-81W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
34N71W.  A SMALL 1023 MB LOW IS FURTHER E AT 31N62W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS FROM 32N56W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W.  A
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N40W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 25N25W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW DOMINATES
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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