[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR
26.5W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4.5S40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF
THE AXIS E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SW
AFRICA FROM LIBERIA TO BENIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO WITHIN 100-150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-33W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS TO THE W GULF W OF
94W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE SE US...GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE W ATLC WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 29.5N-80W. A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 88.5W FROM
25N-28N. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
TROUGH. SLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING A MORE HUMID AIR MASS ALONG
THE STATES OF THE GULF COAST...INCLUDING FLORIDA. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CLIP THE N GULF ON FRI INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS AS STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SEA AS WELL AS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA THANKS
TO AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 10N-77W. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS POOLED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVING THE W
CARIBBEAN BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BROUGHT IN
BY THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE/STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR FLORIDA SETTLES NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N55W EXTENDING
SW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
W ATLC W OF FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
NEAR 29.5N-80W.. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
ARE IN PLACE OVER THE W ATLC S OF 31N. A LARGE BAND OF OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 200 NM W OF
THE FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 20N60W TO BEYOND
31N45W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N
E OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
IS FORMING NEAR 19N44W...ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE NE ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE UPPER
LOW. A TROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDS
FROM 14N44W ENE ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER AFRICA
NEAR 19N16W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.

$$
GR


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