[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S41W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 31W TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM NIGER COAST TO THE IVORY COAST.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF UPPER WESTERLY FLOW.
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS TO
THE W GULF W OF 94W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATED THE GULF...SO THE PACIFIC MOISTURE IS HAVING LITTLE
EFFECT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE SE US...GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE W ATLC WITH A 1029 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
31N83W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG
89W FROM 23N-27N. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W AND IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON WERE REPORTED ACROSS S FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL CLIP THE N GULF ON FRI INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 76W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W
MEANDERING TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVING THE
W CARIBBEAN BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THE E CARIBBEAN FAIR SKIES WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT IN
BY THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE NW AND DISSIPATE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE/STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W WHERE IT
CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF FRONT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A 1029 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE W ATLC S OF 32N. THUS...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N48W.
DIFFLUENCE AND CONVECTION ARE N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF THE COLD FRONT TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM
THE NE ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC HAS FORMED A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW IN THE TROPICS NEAR 15N51W WHILE THE NE PORTION
REMAINS N OF 20N E OF 27W WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N15W. NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE PRESENT
WITH EITHER OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 25N-30N OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST W AFRICA. A VERY BROAD UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE UPPER FLOW E OF 45W. A
TROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 120 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE
N PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FROM 10N45W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR
19N16W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH ON THU AND DISSIPATE BY THE WEEKEND.

$$
WALLACE


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