[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
7N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N10W 3N20W...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
3N20W EQUATOR AT 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...
FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SOUTH OF 22N18W 18N40W 12N51W 10N58W MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS
BECOME INTERRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A CENTRAL GULF WATERS
SURFACE 1023 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N89W. ONE TROUGH
EMANATES FROM THIS LOW CENTER NORTHWARD TO THE LOUISIANA COAST
AND A SECOND TROUGH GOES WESTWARD FOR 300 NM. A SURFACE 1027 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N87W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THERE IS SOME HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF 13 FEBRUARY...FROM 24N TO
28N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH FEATURE STILL PRESENT OVER THE AREA FROM THE
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD...COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N IN THIS AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.
WINDS GRADUALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST EAST OF LOUISIANA AS
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND WINDS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A THICK BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 125 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N60W 23N70W 20N74W WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS
THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N64W TO 24N67W TO 20N72W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE NORTHWEST OF 20N68W 14N75W 9N80W...WEST OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 20N72W TO HAITI NEAR 18N74W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM HAITI NEAR 18N74W TO 14N78W
AND 10N81W. THE 14/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA
SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 63W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE AREA
WEST OF THE FRONT IS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT AND
SEAS FROM 8 FT TO 12 FT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
17N. TRADE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT DOMINATE MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN IN A COUPLE
DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM
HAITI TO COSTA RICA WILL DISSIPATE SLOWLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUESDAY KEEPING THE
CLOUDINESS/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE ORIGINATES FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 35N30W TO 33N40W 27N48W 25N54W 20N59W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE
32N63W 20N72W COLD FRONT. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING AT SPEEDS
OF 20 KT TO 25KT ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST OF 60W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 20W AND 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...AND
SOUTH OF 20N TO 20N35W 11N50W 7N58W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO JUST WEST OF MOROCCO NOW IS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO NEAR ITS BORDER WITH ALGERIA.
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 22N18W 18N40W 12N51W 10N58W
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

$$
MT

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