[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3.5N10W 2N20W 1N35W TO THE COASTLINE OF
BRAZIL NEAR -2N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-19W...
AND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-27W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN INLAND OVER LIBERIA IN AFRICA
AND OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 23.5-95.5. THIS
FEATURE WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SLY OVER ENTIRE GULF WATERS
BY TUE MORNING. COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE SEEN OVER THE
GULF...MAINLY EAST OF 90W. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST E OF LOUISIANA AS
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND WINDS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW
FLORIDA INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD FLATTEN AND PULL
OUT TOMORROW.  A WEAK REINFORCING TROUGH OF COOLER AIR IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF..AND THIS TROUGH SHOULD STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF.. EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW TO PERHAPS INCREASE CLOUDS IN S ALABAMA/NW FLORIDA
LATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC W OF 55W...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-60W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS
HAITI. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S HAITI TO COSTA RICA. A
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE COVERING
THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT.  WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED NEAR
THE FRONT BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 25 KT. FARTHER E... LARGE
MID/UPPER HIGH IS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NE TO BEYOND 32N52W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA S OF 25N. TRADES OF AROUND
15 KT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN BUT THEY
WILL STRENGTHEN IN A COUPLE DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENS. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED...WHILE THE N SEGMENT OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING
KEEPING THE CLOUDINESS/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA.

REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1034 MB HIGH IS NEAR 34N34W PRODUCING TRADE WINDS OF 20-25KT
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 60W.  SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE ITCZ.
UPPER TROUGH IS ALIGNED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION..
RUNNING FROM WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 23N30W 15N45W 5N52W.  UPPER
RIDGES ARE TO THE NW AND SE OF THE TROUGH.  HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE FAR S ATLANTIC S OF 11N BETWEEN 20W-45W WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
GR



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