[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-48W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BETWEEN 14W-19W FROM 2N-4N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE MEAN AXIS NEAR 93W EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A 1000 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE SE U.S. AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 32N85W 25N80W 19N96W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS STILL OCCURRING FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
FLORIDA. STRONG SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND
FROM 26N85W NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLA. IN FACT...MOST OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE ENHANCED BY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL 70-90KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET.
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS OVER MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. SURFACE
SW FLOW NEAR 10-20 KT IS COMMON EAST OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE
FRONT...WINDS ARE TURNING TOWARDS THE N-NNW NEAR 15-25 KT. THE
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN QUICKLY MOVING TO THE SE OVERNIGHT AND IT IS
LIKELY TO CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL BUILD IN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC HIGH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NE OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 75W. THERE ARE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE GULF. ENE TRADE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W...WHILE
GENERALLY 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE
ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE MEAN AXIS
ALONG 65W.  AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S AMERICA NEAR 9N65W.
BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
S OF 14N. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES E 0F 75W N OF 15N. WEST OF
75W...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF...WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL POSSIBLY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS MANY OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT THE SFC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N54W. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS WSW TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS
HIGH IS CAUSING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN 40W-70W EXCEPT FOR A
PATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR 60W FROM 26N-29N.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DRAPED FROM A 1005 MB LOW ALONG
32N32W 27N37W 24N42W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
...MOSTLY N OF 26N...ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N18W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FROM 27W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A  RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE
ATLANTIC. A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W-75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 28W-53W. A BROAD RIDGE EXISTS EAST OF 28W. EAST OF
60W...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD FROM 13N-24N
KEEPING THIS AREA RAIN FREE.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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