[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 4N20W 3N30W 4N46W 3N51W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-42W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
BETWEEN 11W-17W FROM 1N-5N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH THE MEAN AXIS NEAR 93W EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A 1002 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE SE U.S. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN
GULF ALONG 32N87W 26N93W 24N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED POTENTIAL TORNADOES EXTEND FROM
23N85W NORTHEASTWARD TO S FLA. IN FACT...MOST OF FLORIDA...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL 70-90KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
EXISTS OVER MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. SURFACE SW FLOW NEAR 10-20
KT IS COMMON EAST OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE
TURNING TOWARDS THE N-NNW NEAR 15-20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC HIGH IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NE OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 75W. THERE ARE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE GULF. ENE TRADE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W...WHILE
GENERALLY 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE
ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...JAMAICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE MEAN AXIS
ALONG 65W.  AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S AMERICA NEAR 9N65W.
BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
S OF 14N. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES E 0F 75W N OF 15N. WEST OF
75W...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF...WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL POSSIBLY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS MANY OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT THE SFC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N55W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS WSW TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS HIGH IS
CAUSING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN 40W-70W. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DRAPED FROM A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
32N35W 25N42W 22N49W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 29N-38N BETWEEN 30W-34W.  FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
FROM 30W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA NORTHWARD BETWEEN
50W-75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-55W. A
BROAD RIDGE EXISTS EAST OF 30W. EAST OF 60W...MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD FROM 14N-25N KEEPING THIS AREA RAIN
FREE.

$$
CANGIALOSI

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