[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W 1N30W 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
2N-13N BETWEEN 5W-10W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE ENTIRE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
30N90W 27N97W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT...
HOWEVER...A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ALONG 30N85W 27N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL
LINE.  A WARM FRONT IS N OF THE AREA OVER GEORGIA.  THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF...E OF THE FRONT...STILL HAS WARM 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 70-80 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE S
GULF FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA PRODUCING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS S OF 25N.  EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER N FLORIDA TONIGHT.  AIRMASS
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E
OF 80W.  10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 80W.  A BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN
60W-68W.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN
AXIS ALONG 70W.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SW TO W.  A BAND
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
17N.  ANOTHER BAND IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE PREVAILING WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N67W.  THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 29N50W
25N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN
40W-45W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N33W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W WITH
MEAN AXIS ALONG 70W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF
THE RIDGE AXIS.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net