[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N25W 1N50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM OF
THE AXIS E OF 15W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 1N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO 8W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS OVER SOUTH US AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF TODAY. A 999 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
SSW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT ALONG 30N86W 28N88W.
THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYSTEM WITH A SQUALL LINE AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WITHIN 50 NM ON THE EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 27N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF 84W. AT
15Z...THE SURFACE MAP DEPICTED A RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE
TEXAS COAST AND THE WARM FRONT ENTERING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER LOUISIANA. A
SUBTROPICAL JET IS SPREADING MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE..THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF...CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN US WILL MOVE NE THIS
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA N TO OVER HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO PROBABLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM 70W-83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF JAMAICA
FROM 75W-81W. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC AND FAR E
GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO N TO 31N70W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. MODERATE/ STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-31
BETWEEN 50W-75W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COVERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
28N36W COVERS THE E ATLC WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTER THE AREA
NEAR 31N47W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS
TO JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS INLAND OVER AFRICA JUST ALONG THE PRIME
MERIDIAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE FAR E ATLC.
DIFFLUENCE IS AIDED BY A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 20N20W
NE TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 22N15W. OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THIS JET TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA.

$$
GR


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