[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N20W 2N33W 1N43W EQ50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 10W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND E US ALONG 82W...SHIFTING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W TO 23N86W WHERE IT IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT TO 26N97W. A LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS TX
COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF
WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS OF
20-25 KT...GUSTING NEAR 30 KT WILL BLOW OVER THE GULF N OF
25N...AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
CITIES OF CIUDAD VICTORIA AND MATAMOROS IN NE MEXICO ARE ALREADY
REPORTING GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS OVER THE E GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W
WHILE MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODERATE EAST
TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE W
CARIBBEAN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. ATLC RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF
50W WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N58W EXTENDING SW TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W THEN WEAKENS AS A STATIONARY
FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 23N80W. A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 30N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ARE N OF 24W W OF 60W COVERING ALSO MOST
OF THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE
LESSER ANTILLES NE TO BEYOND 32N40W. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC NEAR 28N39W AND COVERS
THE AREA E OF 60W. NARROWING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
31N23W SSW OF 10N40W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AND
ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 31N22W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS INLAND
OVER AFRICA ALONG 10W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE FAR E
ATLC. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 14N32W NE TO ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 29N10W. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT IS ENHANCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
CANARY/CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS.

$$
GR




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