[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 1N33W 1N43W EQ49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AND E US ALONG
85W...SHIFTING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO
23N87W WHERE IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT TO
25N95W. THIS IS SETTING UP A SCENARIO THAT GFS MODEL HAS BEEN
FORECASTING...A 1004 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL MOVE NE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING IN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE GULF ON THU. SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTION ABOVE FROM OVER THE SE US WITH A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W AND A SECOND 1020 MB HIGH OVER SE
ALABAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS NOW BEING
REPLACED BY MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM THE E PACIFIC THAT IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS COVERING ALL BUT THE E GULF N
OF 25N E OF 90W. AS OF YET...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH THE AXIS FROM OVER E SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN BROKEN/OVERCAST
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST FROM S
NICARAGUA THROUGH PANAMA. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 56W
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W EXTENDING SW TO
THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W THEN WEAKENS AS A STATIONARY FRONT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ARE N OF 24W W
OF 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE AREA. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES NE TO BEYOND 32N47W
COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 350/400 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N40W AND COVERS THE AREA E OF 60W. NARROWING
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W SSW OF 10N42W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N22W EXTENDING SW
TO 28N26W THEN DISSIPATING NEAR 26N29W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM
10N-27N LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 10W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE FAR E ATLC. DIFFLUENCE IS AIDED BY A JET STREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 10N37W NE TO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 29N10W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS IS OVER AFRICA AND THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

$$
WALLACE



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