[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN WHILE MOST OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED IS CONFINED OVER S AMERICA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE IS NOW BENEATH THE A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO S OF 12N.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N W OF 80W TO OVER
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND OVER E PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N10W 10N20W 7N31W 5N47W 4N54W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 5N E OF 26W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF A
LINE FROM 7N35W 8N50W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO AROUND TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDING S FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE E MEXICAN COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS TROUGH IS MOVING E INTO THE GULF AND BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
IN 24-36 HOURS. THE BEST LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE OVER E TEXAS AND
ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. E GULF REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CUBA TO THE GEORGIA COAST COVERING
THE AREA FROM 70W-90W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND BE OVER THE W
ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS
MOVING UPWARD COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER MEXICO THUS
ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES TO A 1007 MB
LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE INDUCED BY THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS OVER-ALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING
A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF AS DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE SURGES N OVER THE E HALF OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WEDGED BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF AND THE S EXTENT OF AN
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE NE ACROSS CUBA TO SE UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF 80W. DRY UPPER
AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO S OF 12N ACROSS PANAMA. THE
AFRICAN DUST AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE
SPREADING WESTWARD THIS MORNING WITH DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGHEST OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N PORTIONS OF S
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
COVERING THE AREA W OF 70W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SHORTWAVE
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 15N69W. THIS IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
TROUGH 32N40W SW TO 18N50W WITH WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1016 MB LOW REMAINS...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE...CENTERED NEAR 26N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
BOTH N AND S NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 19N32W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC...IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO A CONTRIBUTING
FACTOR IN THE LACK OF CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC
BROKEN BY THE 1016 MB SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N69W AND A 1020 MB
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N51W. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC FROM A 1031 MB HIGH JUST SE OF
THE AZORES THROUGH 32N30W TO 20N45W.

$$
WALLACE



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