[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT. WEAK WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND THUS
MASKING MOST OF THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED MAINLY ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE HAS WEAKENED FURTHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS
CONFINED OVER S AMERICA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W/81W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW BENEATH THE N FLOW OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THUS...ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 10N20W 6N32W 8N48W 7N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF 3N FROM 20W-32W AND WITHIN WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N E
OF 12W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE QUIET DAY AROUND THE GULF HAS GIVEN WAY TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EXTENDING INTO S ALONG THE E MEXICAN COAST FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE E INTO
THE GULF AND BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IN 24-36 HOURS. THE BEST
LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE BORDERING THE N PORTION OF THE AREA AND WITH
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE MOVING UPWARD COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER MEXICO. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY FURTHER ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW LEVEL LOW
IS FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS
OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE GULF AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE SURGES N OVER THE E
HALF OF THE AREA. E GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CUBA TO
OVER S FLORIDA AND COVERING THE AREA S OF 28N FROM THE BAHAMAS
TO 90W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO BE OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST/W GULF AND THE S
EXTENT OF AN CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE NE ACROSS CUBA TO OVER S
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
80W. DRY UPPER AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA INCLUDING PANAMA. THE AFRICAN DUST AND RELATIVELY DRIER
AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD THIS MORNING WITH
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING HIGHEST OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
COVERING THE AREA S OF 28N W OF THE BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC...SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM NEAR BERMUDA
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 15N70W. THIS IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS TROUGH 32N40W SW TO 20N50W WITH WEAK RIDGING
BETWEEN. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF 1018 MB LOWS...REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...ARE CENTERED NEAR 30N46W AND 26N48W
WITH SHORT SURFACE TROUGHS THAT ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 18N34W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC...IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN THE LACK OF
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAD EXTENDED ACROSS THE ATLC IS NOW
BROKEN BY THE PAIR OF 1018 MB SURFACE LOWS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC FROM
A 1031 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N30W TO 20N43W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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