[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 14 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 520 NM E OF TRINIDAD IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N
MOVING W 15-20 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON TURNING IN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND A RECENT BLOWUP OF TSTMS.  MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF MARTINIQUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NW TO NEAR
GUADELOUPE LATE SUN.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 75 NM OF 9N53W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS CAUSING
OCCASIONALLY BURSTS OF TSTMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET THOUGH THINGS ARE QUIET FOR NOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 3N40W 7N52W 7N59W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2.5N-7.5N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 3N4W 3N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
QUIET PATTERN WITH 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE AREA
SAVE THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH 15-20 KT AS DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONTROLS THE REGION. A FEW STREAMER
LINES OF SHOWERS ARE THRU S FLORIDA WITH A MORE CLUSTERED
SHOWERS AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF 28N92W...
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE
A TROUGH FROM THE E GULF NEAR 26N84W TO EXTREME NW FLORIDA WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGING PUSHING OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
FEATURES ARE MOISTURE-STARVED WITH A STRONG CAP IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR SOME
DIURNAL-FORCED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IN MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT BUT LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N
BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SUN.
SMOKE AND HAZE WAS VISIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY WITH EARLIER SURFACE STATIONS IN THE
AREA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 5-6 NM.

CARIBBEAN SEA....
WET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF CUBA THRU
THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO E PANAMA SPARKING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.  HEAVY
RAINS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
PUERTO RICO AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH NEARS WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM LINGERS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N76W THRU
HISPANIOLA.  EARLIER HEAVY RAINS FROM THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU
THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE WEAKENED BUT LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
REDEVELOPING S OF HISPANIOLA TO 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W.  ANOTHER
AREA OF FOCUS IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG ABOUT 81W S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS W OF
UPPER TROUGH.  TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH'S ALIGNMENT WITH THE LOWER TROUGH... AS THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE-LADEN WESTERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  MID-LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS
NOTED NEAR 13N78W MOVING NE... HELPING TO FIRE A FEW TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN NRN S
AMERICA INTO THE ABC ISLANDS.  COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM S OF JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING UP EVEN MORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N54W TO 30N70W
31N75W WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT.  MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 28N60W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR COPIOUS MOISTURE S OF 25N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  OTHERWISE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC.  LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE WLY WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 22N-28N BETWEEN 20W-60W.  SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W
TO 22N54W THEN 20N65W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS BETWEEN 20N-24N
FROM 50W-70W.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY
LATER THIS WEEKEND.  FARTHER S... BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W WITH A TROUGH FROM THE CAPE
VERDES TO EQ30W.  ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
IN THE ITCZ OTHERWISE MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
S OF 18N E OF 55W.  ENHANCED TRADES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BLAKE


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