[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT 14 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WAVE HAS
ACCELERATED AND GOTTEN PROGRESSIVELY LESS WELL-DEFINED AS IT HAS
MOVED WESTWARD.  POSITION IS ROUGHLY BASED ON TURNING IN THE LOW
CLOUDS.  MOISTURE AND ENHANCED SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF MARTINIQUE
OVERNIGHT SUN AND SPREAD NW TO NEAR GUADELOUPE LATE SUN.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS CAUSING
OCCASIONALLY BURSTS OF TSTMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 4N22W 3N40W 6N51W 5N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 2N-6.5N FROM 10W-30W WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 2.5N8W 3.5N3.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
QUIET PATTERN WITH 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE AREA
FROM DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ARE THRU S FLORIDA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
WITHIN 120 NM OF 27N91W... OTHERWISE THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE USA
WITH A TROUGH FROM NW CUBA AND LOUISIANA.  THE FEATURES ARE
MOISTURE-STARVED WITH A STRONG CAP IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR SOME DIURNAL-FORCED
ACTIVITY OVER LOUISIANA.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT TOMORROW BUT LITTLE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED N OF 28N BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON SUN. SMOKE AND HAZE REMAINS EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A FEW SURFACE
STATIONS IN THE AREA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 5-6 NM.

CARIBBEAN SEA....
WET WEATHER ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF CUBA THRU THE NE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALONG 80W
SPARKING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.  SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM
IS POSITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W THRU
HISPANIOLA WITH OCCASIONALLY PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY AND DIURNAL
HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 16N E OF 75W.
HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW FALLING THRU THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16.5N E OF 64.5W NEAR AN AREA OF
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG ABOUT 81W S
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
SCATTERED TSTMS COULD REDEVELOP E OF NICARAGUA SIMILAR TO LAST
NITE THOUGH DEVELOPMENT MIGHT BE A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD.  WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALREADY S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-78W.  EXPECT
MORE ENHANCED RAINS ACROSS JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS PROLONGED EVENT HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER
HISPANIOLA.  COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM S OF JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH SLY
WINDS BRINGING UP EVEN MORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY
EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N60W TO 30N70W
31N75W WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT.  MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 27N67W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR COPIOUS MOISTURE S OF 25N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  OTHERWISE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC.  LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE WLY WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 22N-28N BETWEEN 20W-60W.  DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
ALONG 31N43W TO 24N52W CONTINUING AS A TROUGH SW TO 20N62W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 20N-24N FROM 50W-70W.  LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT/TROUGH WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
FARTHER S... BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
W OF 40W WITH A TROUGH FROM THE CAPE VERDES TO EQ32W.  ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH IN THE ITCZ OTHERWISE
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA S OF 18N E OF 55W.
ENHANCED TRADES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net