[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300610
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 30 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 39W...3S43W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA
COAST AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3S TO 5S BETWEEN 35W AND 38W ALONG THE BRAZIL
COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN CENTRAL UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THE WATER
VAPOR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE
TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWARD FROM THERE INTO WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST
OF 25N97W 31N88W WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TEXAS GULF WATERS FROM
26N TO 28N WEST OF 95W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH 34N100W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS
TROUGH...COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL UNITED
STATES TO FLORIDA. SOME BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SOUTH OF 24N82W 27N90W 24N97W...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INLAND 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N91W IN
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N84W
TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N90W...TOWARD THE
1005 MB LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM MEXICO TO CUBA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 23N61W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 80W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 15N83W 18N71W...
FEEDING INTO THE CLOUD BAND OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS ALONG 32N63W 27N70W 22N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ALONG 32N63W
27N70W 22N76W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RUNS
THROUGH 32N65W...BERMUDA...TO 26N69W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 25 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N64W 30N62W 32N61W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N52W 25N59W 21N67W 20N80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH TO FOLLOW.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N51W TO
24N42W. ANOTHER RIDGE GOES FROM THE 31N51W HIGH CENTER TO 24N57W
AND 20N68W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEAR
33N38W TO 20-N38W TO 10N43W. SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N28W
TO 26N30W 20N38W...DISSIPATING TO 17N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE
THROUGH 32N27W 25N30W 21N37W 19N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS CLOUDINESS
NORTH OF 29N.

$$
MT

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