[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292302
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 29 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N17W 3N33W 2S42W.  CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 3.5N27W AND WITHIN 60 NM
OF 2N35W.  CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER W AFRICA MAY EMERGE NEAR 10N14W
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE W OF TAMPA AND
MOSTLY CONTINENTAL AIR THROUGHOUT THE AREA.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING
LIES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING
MOST CLOUDINESS SAVE SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND EXTREME NW GULF.  THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER TEXAS ARE
HERALDING A CHANGE TO WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST AS SLY WINDS BRING UP MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY
WED.  MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY WITH WED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LIMITING THE FRONT'S SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS AND RAIN ACTIVITY.  THE REAL ACTION SHOULD BEGIN LATE
THU WHEN A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO TEXAS.. CAUSING A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN NE TEXAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
THEM DURING EASTER WEEKEND.  FRI LOOKS LIKE A STORMY DAY IN THE
CENTRAL AND E GULF AS THE FRONT SHOULD BE QUITE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE... WITH PROBABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE THRU THE ENTIRE REGION
BY LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN WIPED OUT BY THE
STRONG SPRING SUNSHINE WITH ONLY A REMNANT TROUGH FROM NW CUBA
INTO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NW
INTO GULF WATERS.  OTHERWISE STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH JUST NW OF
COLOMBIA CONTROLS THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE
HIGH KEEPING ANY RAIN ACTIVITY SPORADIC AND VERY SHALLOW.
ANOTHER POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FROM TRINIDAD TO GUADELOUPE.  THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
COULD BE ON SAT AS A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN.  IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE MORE UPPER ENERGY SUPPORT THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO HAVE SCATTERED TSTMS.

ATLANTIC...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS WELL-DEFINED
FROM W TO E OVER THE AREA.  WESTERNMOST TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR BERMUDA SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  THIS TROUGH/LOW IS THE
SAME FEATURE THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SE UNITED STATES
THIS PAST WEEKEND AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD SOMEWHAT
CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN JETSTREAM.  LOW REMAINS QUITE POTENT
DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE FOCUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS N OF 28N WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
COVERS THE REST OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 32N54W.  DEEP TROUGH IS OVER THE
E-CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LOW DROPPING A TROUGH
THRU 32N38W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 13N40W.  DRY ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF THE TROUGH WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY N OF 27N WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM
32N29W 23N34W 18N45W.  FINALLY MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE E
ATLC WITH AXIS RUNNING ALONG W AFRICA THRU THE CANARY ISLANDS.
TYPICAL AZORES HIGH REMAINS AWOL WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
SQUEEZED IN FROM PORTUGAL THRU THE CAPE VERDES TO 24N30W PLUS
BEHIND THE E-CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT. ITCZ CONVECTION IS SPOTTY
AT BEST WITH NEGLIGIBLE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE DEEP TROPICS ARE
MUCH LESS CLOUDY THAN AVERAGE.

$$
BLAKE

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