[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 112352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI 11 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W EQ18W EQ40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
2W-5W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 16W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1025 MB HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N101W.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N87W 28N90W 26N97W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE FRONT OVER N FLORIDA N OF 29N.  ON
SHORE FLOW IS NOTED S OF S TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS INLAND TO THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  A 130 KT JET
STREAM AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF N OF 24N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO JAMAICA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA ALONG 20N73W 16N80W 13N84W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 90 NM
BEHIND THE FRONT TO INCLUDE E CUBA AND JAMAICA.  A PATCH OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W MOVING W WITH THE
TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 82W SUPPRESSING LARGE SCALE CONVECTION.  A
SMALL AREA OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN
84W-88W MOVING NE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 32N47W 25N60W 20N73W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 45W-48W.  A BAND OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT.  A 1020
MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N36W.  A LARGE AREA
OF SAHARA DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 24N W
OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-50W.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 50W WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM 30N20W
TO 10N43W.

$$
FORMOSA




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