[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 11 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 01S24W 2S32W EQ50W.  NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 11W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 17W-21W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN
24W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COASTAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED ALONG FRONT EAST
OF 88W. SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION NE WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE 12N112W...20N105W...THEN WIDENS TO WITHIN 300NM OF
24N99W...28N90W THEN CONTINUES NE OF THE AREA TO BEYOND 34N80W.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SOUTH TO NICARAGUA THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING
FRONT ACROSS HONDURAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES NORTHWARD
FROM ITCZ THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.  ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
VENEZUELAN COAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO COSTA RICA....
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EXTENDING ALONG 31N55W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR 24N64W...BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS ALONG 29N56W EXTENDING
NORTH TO 32N51W.  IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 26N41W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FURTHER EAST A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SW TO NEAR 20N26W AND
CONTINUES SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR 8N39W.

$$
JP/MN



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