[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 11 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 5N77W...THE EQUATOR AT 18W...1S20W 2S30W 5S38W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
3N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...AND
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH SPEEDS FROM 80
TO 100 KT FROM 10N TO 20N EAST OF 120W...CROSSES INTERIOR
MEXICO...AND ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WEST OF 90W...
CHANGING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO WESTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS ALSO RANGE FROM
80 TO 100 KT. A FEW BANDS OF THIN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE GULF
WATERS. 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...TO EAST CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N100W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JUST WEST
OF JAMAICA TO 18N80W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 15N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 15N83W TO
SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO EAST CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N70W 24N75W
23N78W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 15N83W 17N80W 20N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 20N52W TO 18N61W TO 16N68W. THE 11/0300 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PROFILE SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THIS AREA...WITH THE
MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW BEING COMPARATIVELY BROADER AND WEAKER THAN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO HINTS AT
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N62W TO 23N70W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N61W BEYOND
32N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 250 TO 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF 20N65W 23N53W 27N40W 27N34W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
21N55W 28N50W BEYOND 33N50W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH
THIS RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 57W. SURFACE 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N42W...WITH RIDGE FROM THE CENTER TO
20N52W TO 18N61W AND TO 16N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DEEP LAYER
TROUGH RUNS FROM 20N33W TO 26N29W BEYOND 32N28W. THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTS THE 994 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 41N28W...AND THE BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N24W BEYOND 33N24W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS IN
PLACE IN FROM WESTERN AFRICA NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS JUST WEST
OF PORTUGAL.

$$
MT


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net