[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU 10 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N0 4N10W 3S24W 2S35W 4S44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FORMING NEAR THE IVORY
COAST/LIBERIA/GUINEA BORDER. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE IS
LOCATED S OF THE ITCZ ALONG 2N12W EQ3W WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 4N BETWEEN 1W-8W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-18W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIES S OF THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E OF FL TO THE W
ATLC WATERS AND IS QUICKLY CLEARING AWAY MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS
OVER THE AREA. THE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH AFFECTED THE E GULF
AND FL YESTERDAY...WHICH INCIDENTALLY BROUGHT UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN
TO THE WEST PALM BEACH AREA...HAS SHIFTED SE OF THE AREA AND
USHERED IN MUCH DRIER AIR. A WEAK POST-FRONTAL DISTURBANCE...
HIGHLIGHTED BY A WEAK 1014 MB LOW ABOUT 90 NM W OF TAMPA AND
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING SW TO 22N93W...IS ALSO MOVING
SE ACROSS THE GULF BUT IS ESSENTIALLY ONLY BRINGING IN A SECOND
SURGE OF DRY AIR AND THE FINAL PUSH OF CLEARING SKIES. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO
EWD PAST CNTRL FL...BUT THE STRONGEST CORE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE N OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE HIGH CIRRUS TO THE S OF THE AXIS
ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE N GULF COAST ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. AFTER THAT...A STRONG E/W RIDGE
WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AND WILL BLOCK MID-LATITUDE SYSTEMS
WELL TO THE N DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLID SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL CUBA SW ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND THEN IS BANKED ALONG THE MTNS
INTO SRN MEXICO. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LOCATED
WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLC WATERS...YET THERE IS ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN
45 NM OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 18N. IN ADDITION...NLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE OVER MUCH
OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND SRN BELIZE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE VENEZUELAN OFFSHORE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO
COSTA RICA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING THE SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR SE OF A LINE FROM SE CUBA TO NICARAGUA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
ROLLING WWD ACROSS MARTINIQUE...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND GRENADA
ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES...1001 MB...IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 30N65W WITH GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ADJACENT TO A COLD
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS SW TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND CNTRL CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTEND UP TO 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS UP TO 150 NM TO THE W. A SECOND 1005 MB
DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING S BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 31N72W AND IS
INCREASING THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE FIRST LOW AND IS MOVING N OF THE
AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND N OF 29N BETWEEN 59W-65W.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...THE CNTRL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG 32N33W 10N40W AND IS MAINTAINING A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FROM 32N22W 24N26W 18N40W THEN
DISSIPATING TO 11N58W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING...HOWEVER...AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS RE-BUILDING OVER THE AREA ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N49W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST INLAND
OF THE W AFRICAN COAST AND A CLOSED UPPER HIGH IS SE OF SIERRA
LEONE...A PATTERN WHICH HAS KEPT THE ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION S
OF THE EQUATOR. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OFF OF AFRICA AS FAR
W AS 30W AND NOW A NEW PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING OFF THE
WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA COAST...N OF 16N AND E OF 19N
SPREADING N OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
BERG


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