[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060623
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN 06 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC...AND METEOSAT-7 SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0530 UTC.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 3N14W 2N20W 2N30W 2N40W 4N47W 4N52W 2N57W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 16W AND
18W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND
21W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W...
AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND IN BRAZIL...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN 56W
AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 10N110W MOVES TO
THE MEXICO COAST...ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AS WESTERLY FLOW...
CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THE WIND
SPEEDS RANGE FROM 50 TO 70 KT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO SPEEDS FROM 80 TO 110 KT IN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEAR
25N83W. 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST NEAR 30N94W. SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM COASTAL
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING SPREAD ACROSS
THE OPEN GULF WATERS WITH THE HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N68W...AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
AND EASTERN JAMAICA TO 17N80W...TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS.
OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 45 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N80W 13N84W IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA...SURROUNDING HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL IS PRIMARILY
WESTERLY FROM CENTRAL AMERICA EASTWARD...WITH CONTINUED UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA MERGING WITH OTHER
FLOW REGIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEDGING ITS WAY
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA/NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF VIRGINIA. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SHOW UP FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO 31N80W AND BEYOND 32N75W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS  FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 80W. BROAD AND
GENTLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ALL THE WAY TO AFRICA. ONLY ONE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC NOW...PASSING THROUGH 32N31W TO
27N40W 24N50W 22N60W GOING INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH 20N68W. THIS FRONT IS MARKED BY A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
BAND WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS...60 TO 100 NM WIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 25N58W...WITHIN 160 TO 200 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N58W TO 32N36W 35N20W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS FINALLY HAS MOVED INLAND...GOING FROM COASTAL PORTUGAL
TO NORTHERN CENTRAL MAURITANIA TO NORTHERN SENEGAL.

$$
MT





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