[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT 05 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W 1N30W 3N51W. SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK NOW WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...ATTENTION NOW TURNS UPSTREAM AS YET ANOTHER S STREAM
CUTOFF LOW WILL TRANSITION THROUGH THE SW UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COPIOUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED STREAMING NEWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND
THE W GULF.  A LARGE SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED DURING
THE DAY OVER INTERIOR TEXAS AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVES AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SURGES INLAND. THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY INLAND AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
MAKING IT INTO THE NW GULF BY SUN MORNING.  THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS/LIFT THEN GETS STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE N GULF AND S
UNITED STATES MON WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINING SPORADIC UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES INTO
THE AREA TUE.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SWD
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL CLIP FLORIDA TONIGHT MAINTAINING
DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY.  MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ERODED AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE SE GULF SAGS SWD INTO THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...ELY TRADES DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR KEEPING TYPICAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT A MINIMUM.  A PATCH OF MOISTURE AND SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN CATALYST FOR SHOWERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND SAVE THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER THE ATLC WATERS WILL CLIP PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS
ENTRENCHED N OF THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE SHORTER WAVE DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED WLY FLOW N OF 20N.  THE MOST
NOTABLE OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY EMERGING OFF THE SE
UNITED STATES COAST WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE S UNITED STATES.  THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
QUICKLY OVER THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO S
FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY E OF THE BAHAMAS...AS
IT SWEEPS QUICKLY OVER THE W ATLC.  SHIFTING EWD...A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N30W SW ALONG 26N50W THEN
DISSIPATING TO E HISPANIOLA.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY E OF 60W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF 60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY OVER THE FAR E ATLC...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING PREVAILS
GENERATING MAINLY DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND SPAIN EXTENDING SWD ALONG 32N22W THROUGH
23N35W TO 20N50W.

$$
RHOME






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