[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...DISSIPATING WITH TIME...FROM 10N
TO 15N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ACTIVITY WHICH HAS WEAKENED IS
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N72W TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TO 9N75W IN NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CLUSTER ALREADY HAVE MOVED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE AT THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
COAST...AND FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. MORE CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 71W. THIS WAVE STILL IS
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM PUERTO RICO TO 32N60W. THIS RIDGE
HAS BECOME EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N15W 8N30W 11N43W...11N48W 10N58W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND
26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW POURS INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FLOW GOES INTO A
COMPARATIVELY SMALLER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
25N85W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS CONNECTED BY A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
TO A SECOND CENTER NEAR 23N96W...AND VIA A TROUGH THE REST OF
THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N102W.
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N85W TO 23N84W AT 31/0600 UTC WAS NOT
APPARENT ON THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AT 31/0900 UTC. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM COASTAL ALABAMA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N91W...TO
27N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N NORTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W
AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...JUST EAST
OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 56W AND 60W FROM 10N TO 20N
WITH THE 58W/59W TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND/OR ALREADY IS REACHING THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA...WITH THE 24N72W-TO-COLOMBIA TROPICAL WAVE. THE RIDGE
WHICH WAS ALONG 90W FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS MOVED WESTWARD...
NOW CLOSER TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM EAST TO SOUTH OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N41W.
A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N44W. THE
PRECIPITATION STRETCHES FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W.
OTHER SHOWERS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 32N TO 35N BETWEEN 32W AND
34W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE 31N41W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 23N45W
AND 11N50W. THE RIDGE WHICH IS ON TOP OF THE PUERTO RICO-TO-
32N60W RIDGE HAS AMPLIFIED...THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF IT HAS
DEEPENED. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE PUERTO RICO-TO-32N60W
RIDGE ALSO HAS DEEPENED...EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 27N70W TO
JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT


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