[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN CENTER NEAR 40.3N 63.8W...OR ABOUT
295 MILES/480 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
695 MILES/1115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...
AT 29/0900 UTC MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 40N TO 41N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N60W TO 10N61W NEAR NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
58W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...FROM 17N59W
TO 25N46W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE
LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE SHEARING
WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER TO THIS
TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE 23N56W 10N61W TROPICAL WAVE
JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IS FLOWING OVER THE TOP
OF THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD ALONG
88W/89W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN EAST CENTRAL
COASTAL NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL HONDURAS SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF
86W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 11N24W 11N31W...11N33W 11N42W...10N45W 10N50W 12N55W
12N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ISOLATED CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 14W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N92W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH HAD
BEEN IN THIS AREA 24 HOURS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 26N. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS RUNS
FROM A NORTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N77W
TO THIS GULF CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO MEXICO WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT ARE MOST NOTABLE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N70W
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 18N74W NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE
86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE
FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N60W
TO 10N61W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 23N56W TO 10N61W WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF IT. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W
TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 62W AND 66W WITH THE 26N62W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W WITH THE 26N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.

$$
MT


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