[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290627
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN CENTER NEAR 38.9N 67.5W...OR ABOUT
415 MILES/665 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...
AT 29/0300 UTC MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. FRANKLIN STILL HAS ABOUT 6-12 HR IN WHICH TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  AFTER THAT...THE STORM
SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HR...THEN
BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS 48-60 HR. THE
STRONGEST BURST OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS GENERATING STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 20 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 39N65W.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N58W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR
8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA NEAR 18N BETWEEN 60W AND THE ISLANDS.
SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO
20N BETWEEN 56 AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W
AND 54W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
46W AND 56W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...FROM
17N59W TO 25N46W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE
SHEARING WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER
TO THIS TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS POSITION IS SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD
OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON EXTENDED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE APPEARANCE OF A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE
ITCZ NEAR 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W
AND 47W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM THE
SPECIAL FEATURE 23N56W 8N60W TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IS FLOWING OVER THE TOP OF THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD ALONG
86W/87W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS LEADING INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF 85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 11N24W 11N31W...11N33W 11N42W...10N45W 10N50W 12N55W
12N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ISOLATED CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W
AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N92W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH HAD
BEEN IN THIS AREA 24 HOURS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 26N. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS RUNS
FROM A NORTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N77W
TO THIS GULF CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 26N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO MEXICO WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT ARE MOST NOTABLE FROM LOUISIANA TO EAST TEXAS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST AND WATERS FROM 25N TO 29N IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N70W
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 18N74W NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...AND
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND HAITI FROM 18N
TO 23N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...DISSIPATING WITH TIME. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N58W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA NEAR 18N BETWEEN 60W AND THE ISLANDS. SIMILAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W
AND 60W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 23N56W TO 8N60W WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF IT. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 33N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W
AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W
WITH THE 26N62W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W WITH THE
26N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.

$$
MT

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