[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 290232
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C
NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES
INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL-WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER...
CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY AT THIS
TIME.  THE INITIAL WINDS REMAIN 50 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/16.  FRANKLIN IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LIFE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

FRANKLIN STILL HAS ABOUT 6-12 HR IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR.  AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HR...THEN BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS 48-60 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR
OR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 38.9N  66.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 40.8N  63.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 42.8N  59.3W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  54.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 47.3N  49.3W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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