[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 261433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN HAS BECOME EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY
IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE
OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SEVERAL 30 KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS NOTED IN A 1042Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE QUIKSCAT
SATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE 35-KT INTENSITY MAY BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN 060/04...BUT THE TREND
FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD BE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
SO AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/05 HAS BEEN ASSIGNED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FRANKLIN MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY...INCLUDING SEVERAL WOBBLES...OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. AFTER THAT...THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER-MIDWESTERN U.S.  BY 48 HOURS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...UNTIL
FRANKLIN BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONATL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK... MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION
...AND IS A ALSO LITTLE EAST OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND FRANKLIN COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION. BY
36-48 HOURS...THOUGH...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY
WEAKEN...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/1500Z 32.0N  67.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 32.8N  67.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 33.8N  67.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 35.2N  67.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 37.1N  66.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 40.0N  63.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$WWWW
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