[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 31.6N 68.1W...OR ABOUT
180 NM WSW OF BERMUDA...AT 26/1200 UTC MOVING NE AT 4 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS ONCE AGAIN
BECOMING EXPOSED AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE UNDERGONE SOME WARMING.
HOWEVER...FRANKLIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE INTENSIFYING. THE
ERRATIC MOTION OF YESTERDAY CONTINUES BUT WITH A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION. AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE W OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDING W
SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A
45 NM RADIUS OF 31.5N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A LARGER AREA
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20
KT WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. WAVE IS ON THE W
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS LIFTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. WAVE REMAINS WEAK. WAVE IS IN AN AREA WITH VERY FAST
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
AT ALL LEVELS...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE S GULF. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 10N17W 14N34W...THEN ALONG
10N40W 9N45W 13N61W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6.5N16W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10.5N14.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 11W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
23W-28W AND FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE AREA WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS A
RIDGE SW TO A SECOND HIGH OVER W MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER S MEXICO AND WITHIN
45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 20N W OF 95W ON THE FAVORABLE E SIDE
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO 24N94W. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATER. THE BULK OF THE AFRICAN DUST IS REMAINING EITHER TO
THE S OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SOME INCREASE IN DUST IS POSSIBLE BY
LATE SAT AS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY OVER THE SE
GULF INTO S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
DRY AIR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA HAS WIPED OUT MOST CONVECTION SAVE
FOR SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF
78W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. E WINDS ARE ALOFT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF JAMAICA...WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH
RUNNING FROM A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA S ALONG 16N73W
THEN W TO 14N84W IN NICARAGUA. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS CONTROLS THE CARIBBEAN. WEAK UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 15N62W TO 75W...THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE
MOSTLY OVER S AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 63W-66W. THE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE AS STRONG AS
THEY HAVE BEEN DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED REGION NW OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC...
COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN IN THE W ATLC WITH A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK ONE S OF FRANKLIN NEAR 27N67W WITH A
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNED OVER T.S. FRANKLIN IN
BETWEEN FROM ABOUT BERMUDA TO 28N73W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE IS CAUSING AN ABUNDANCE OF SHOWERS TO FORM
WELL TO THE SE OF FRANKLIN WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W 26N69W TO 28N67W. FARTHER E...ANOTHER SHARP
UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 31N48W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N53W TO
18N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
23N52W-27N50W. SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 21N55W ALONG 17N58W TO 13N57W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE N END OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 53W-59W. STRONG UPPER
RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 18N WHICH IS
SUPPORTING DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER A LARGE AREA TO ITS S.
HOWEVER... MOISTURE IS MOSTLY LIMITED AND STABLE CONDITIONS N OF
THE ITCZ ARE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE ITCZ AXIS. VERY
DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N. FARTHER N...A DEEP
TROUGH....MUCH DEEPER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
SUMMER...EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE AZORES TO 30N25W THOUGH ANY
WEATHER IS N OF THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N43W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLC
BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 60W.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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