[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 260901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAD YESTERDAY BEEN EXPOSED HAS REMAINED
INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE REFLECT INCREASED ORGANIZATION... FRANKLIN HAS NOT TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... AND CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING. INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE
TROPICAL STORM. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT... AS
SUPPORTED BY 06Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT
CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REDEVELOP SOON IF THAT INTENSITY IS TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH LONGER. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
UNLIKELY... AND FRANKLIN MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AS
LONG AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
FRANKLIN...LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
STEERING. THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAVE BOTH OCCURRED... PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
SOONER THAN EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
020/4. THIS SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH
UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE WEST COMPARED TO EARLIER. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. ON THIS TRACK FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0900Z 31.3N  68.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 31.8N  67.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 32.7N  67.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 34.1N  67.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 36.2N  67.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 40.0N  63.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$WWWW
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