[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 242031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

IN ADDITION TO THIS MORNING'S RECON MISSION...AN EARLIER TRMM
OVERPASS WAS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT GERT HAVING A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER.  NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR
35 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT THERE IS
NOW ONLY A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING
BEFORE LANDFALL.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
THIS EVENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWS THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER
AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 21.6N  97.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.1N  98.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.7N  99.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 23.0N 101.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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