[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 241431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
GETTING THE BEST OF FRANKLIN.  THERE IS AN EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER
WITH A DISORGANIZED BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS
SITE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING INTO
INCREASING SHEAR.  WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOW A BAND OF VERY DRY
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO FRANKLIN.  CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT FOLLOWING DVORAK RULES BUT THIS
IS PROBABLY GENEROUS.  GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 070/8.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM...SO
STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS OF FORWARD SPEED...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF VARIOUS POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/1500Z 30.9N  71.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 31.1N  70.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N  68.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 32.0N  67.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 32.5N  66.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 34.0N  64.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 39.0N  57.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING


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