[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 191500
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

DATA FROM THE NWS BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING.  WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN AT A RATE OF ABOUT
1 MB PER HOUR THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS HAS NOT EQUATED TO AN
INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...YET. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 92 KT WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE
OUTBOUND LEG AT ABOUT 1445Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12.  THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE
WOBBLE ABOUT THIS MEAN MOTION...WITH A RECENT WOBBLE TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THIS TYPE OF MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR HURRICANES THAT
ARE UNDERGOING RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. UPPER
AIR DATA AT 19/12Z INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL 290-295 DEGREE MOTION IS
PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE
WEST AFTER THAT. THIS MOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ORECAST AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
EMILY BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPEICALLY SINCE
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EYE
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ARE ACTUALLY T6.0/115 KT AND HIGHER...BUT RECON
DATA INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOT THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29.5C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.

IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN
IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC EXPERIMENTAL
PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 23.9N  94.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 24.4N  96.0W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 24.6N  98.0W   100 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 24.6N 100.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 24.6N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND


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