[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 181440
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
EMILY IS BACK OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL
WELL-ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE REACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY.  EMILY IS CURRENTLY OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH NORMALLY PREVAILS NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF YUCATAN...BUT LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER-LOW IS STILL IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS
GET RID OF THE LOW AND DEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED 200 MB HIGH OVER THE
CYCLONE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOW SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK.
THEREFORE...RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND EMILY IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

EMILY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN
295 AND 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...AROUND A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. A WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY INDUCE A
SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER...THE WEAKNESS
IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE
EMILY TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS
THE CENTER OF EMILY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY
USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/1500Z 21.8N  89.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 22.8N  91.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 23.9N  94.4W    95 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  96.8W   100 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N  99.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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