[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 172032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY CONTINUING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN
SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.2 WEST OR ABOUT  135 MILES...
215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT  320 MILES... 515
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL.  WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.  NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS
THIS EVENING.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 85.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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