[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 170246
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...EMILY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND
THE ISLAS MUJERES.  ADDITIONALLY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE ON THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA... ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.... AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL
AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 220 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 480
MILES... 770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
... 30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL
BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED... AND EMILY
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES... DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER WESTERN JAMAICA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA.  STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 80.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


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