[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 142050
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

LOW-LEVEL DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT 1525 AND 1712Z YIELDED
SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS OF 92 AND 93 KT.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS...BUT SINCE THAT TIME...THE
EYE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T
NUMBERS HAVE INCREASE BY 0.5 TO 1 T-NUMBER.  ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING EMILY THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z UKMET
IS NOW CLOSER TO THE REST OF TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BELOW
EMILY WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  INTERNAL PROCESSES...SUCH
AS HARD TO FORECAST EYEWALL CYCLES...COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE
ON INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BUT NO ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO
ANTICIPATE THESE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 13.3N  65.9W   100 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.1N  68.5W   105 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.3N  72.1W   115 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N  75.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.6N  79.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W   115 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  90.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 23.0N  95.0W    90 KT


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