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WTNT35 KNHC 142039
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
720 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH
...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE
OF THE SEASON.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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