[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 081455
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 150 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
938 MB. WHILE THE 150 KT EQUATES TO A 135-KT SURFACE WIND...OR NEAR
CAT 5 INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 125 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES. THE
EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA.
THE LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY BE STARTING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT DENNIS HAS
LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATES IS 310/13. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
QUITE A BIT THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND HAS MADE A WOBBLE MORE
NORTHWESTWARD THAN THE WESTWARD MOTION OF 6 HOURS AGO. THIS TYPE OF
MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THERE MAY
BE SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION AS THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS
CUBA...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO CONTINUE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH U.S. LANDFALL INDICATED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...NAM...AND THE BAM MODEL SOLUTIONS...
WHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE GFS AND NAM ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF STATES.

DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S. LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

NO CHANGES TO THE U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/1500Z 21.4N  79.9W   130 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.7N  81.7W   110 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 24.5N  83.6W   115 KT...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N  85.0W   115 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 28.4N  86.2W   115 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 32.6N  88.3W    65 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 37.0N  88.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     13/1200Z 39.5N  84.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND


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