[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 080840
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE
CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING
OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF
SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115
KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.  THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR
ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER
CUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN
MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE
CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL
MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND
THE GFS THE FARTHER EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE
OF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING
CUBA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEVASTATION
ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0900Z 20.7N  79.1W   115 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  80.7W   120 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N  82.8W   115 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 25.8N  84.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 27.7N  85.7W   115 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 31.5N  88.0W    80 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 36.6N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     13/0600Z 39.5N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND


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