[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080616 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

UPDATED FOR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY INFORMATION
ABOUT HURRICANE DENNIS

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
OVER WATER BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR 20.3N 78.5W...
OR 80 MILES/125 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY AND ABOUT
135 MILES/215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD CUBA. DENNIS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EYE OF
DENNIS WILL REACH CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY FOLLOWING THIS PATH.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
WHILE THE CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES/220 KM. CAMAGUEY CUBA REPORTED A WIND GUST OF
67 MPH...107 KM/HR A FEW HOURS AGO. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
955 MB...28.20 INCHES. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO
CRUZ.  A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ.  A STORM
SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE DENNIS HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
A SOLID AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM 18.5N TO 21N BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND 79W.
OTHER CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. BANDS OF RAIN AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND DENNIS ARE REACHING THE BAHAMAS AND
EVEN SOUTH FLORIDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
SENDING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 10N30W 8N37W...8N40W 7N50W 6N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. PART OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO JUST EAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH RUNS THROUGH
GEORGIA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...TO A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EAST TEXAS. A 1016 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N87W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS JUST OFF THE COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 28N84W 23N87W
23N90W...EXCEPT FOR THE BITS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER WITH HURRICANE DENNIS.
THE LATEST 72 HOUR FORECAST SHOWS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS MAY
MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DENNIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERATED AND IN GENERAL NOW COVER
THE AREA FROM FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. THE AFFECTED
COUNTRIES...AT LEAST WITH RAIN...ARE CUBA...JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY HAITI. BANDS OF RAIN AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND DENNIS ARE REACHING THE
BAHAMAS AND EVEN SOUTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
SHOOTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN FILTERS ITS WAY INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. HIGH LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FOUND WEST OF 70W
WITH HIGH CLOUDS EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF DENNIS WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS POKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AROUND A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N56W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 33N74W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N69W. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS ARE
SEEN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER
IS WEST OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THROUGH 33N55W TO 23N62W.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20W
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 33N41W TO 29N51W TO 27N69W TO 29N79W. NO SURFACE
FRONTS EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS EVERYWHERE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W...WITH
THE RIDGE SWINGING NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS WEDGING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD A BIT WITH HURRICANE
DENNIS CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE
OF CUBA.

$$
MT


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