[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 051451
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

THE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE NORTH...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD A BIT.

CINDY REMAINS A RATHER ASYMMETRIC STORM WITH MOST OF THE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS ABOUT 45 KT.  SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BECAUSE
OF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY.

PREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND A REEVALUATION OF THE LATEST SLOSH MODEL
RUNS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 27.0N  90.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.7N  90.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  89.4W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 31.8N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 33.0N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 36.5N  83.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 40.0N  79.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1200Z 43.0N  74.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$


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