[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 051443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND...BASED ON A DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED.
THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE EVER TO HAVE FOUR NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  THE STORM WILL BE IN A LOW-SHEAR AND HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AT THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IF
ANY SKILL IN INTENSITY CHANGE PREDICTION AT DAYS 4-5.

DENNIS IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 KT AS A RESULT OF A
DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A LITTLE DECELERATION IS
PREDICTED.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN LONGER-RANGE TRACK PREDICTIONS...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON WHAT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. MIGHT BE THREATENED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF HISPANIOLA
AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 13.3N  66.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.4N  68.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.9N  71.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.4N  74.1W    60 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 18.9N  76.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  81.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  83.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W    75 KT


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