[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 050906
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OF 280 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS..AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
END OF THE RIDGE. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT...IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 12.6N  64.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 13.2N  66.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N  69.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N  72.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 18.0N  75.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  79.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 25.0N  84.0W    70 KT


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