[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT ALREADY HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL HONDURAS AND
WESTERN NICARAGUA. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRAILS THIS
WAVE TO THE EAST BY ABOUT 80 NM. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE...EXTENDING FROM
15N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE RIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE OF ALL THIS PRECIPITATION. EASILY EXPECT LOTS
OF RAIN THERE AND ANY POSSIBLE PROBLEMS WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE
LAST TWO TO THREE HOURS. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA
OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH AND MOVE
OVER SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
CAUSING POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN THIS AREA ARE REACHING ABOUT -85C WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING
HEIGHTS FROM 50000 FEET TO 55000 FEET. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND AROUND THIS MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
FROM 14N TO 22N REACHING CUBA FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 79W AND
87W REACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
FORECAST FOR THIS FEATURE IS FOR IT TO BE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS WAVE ARE IN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 9.5N.
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING THIS
AREA BY 04/0600 UTC OR 04/1200 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ NOW ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
53W AND 55W. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W...
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE FROM
SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE.

THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH
OF 24N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...ALREADY HAS MOVED ONSHORE IN
CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL HONDURAS
AND WESTERN NICARAGUA. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRAILS THIS
WAVE TO THE EAST BY ABOUT 80 NM. IT IS A SPECIAL FEATURE AND
FORECAST TO BECOME A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ RUNS FROM AFRICA NEAR 13N17W TO 9N33W...FROM 9N37W TO
9N50W...AND FROM 8N54W TO 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 11N14W 8N23W...9N34W 8N42W...RUNNING INTO THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE 51W/52W TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 20N MOVING TOWARD CUBA FROM THE SOUTH...ACCOMPANYING THE
86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS
THE TROUGH AND THE GULF EAST OF 90W NORTH OF 25N. MORE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION IS GOING TOWARD THE STRONG WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS COVER A BIG AREA
FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...INCLUDING ON TOP OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BE A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 51W/52W MAY REACH THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. ONE AREA OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES IT NOW. OTHER AREAS OF
RAIN ARE TO THE EAST AND WEST OF IT ALSO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 77W. TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE SOUTH
OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W MOVING WESTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS ALONG 50W MORE OR LESS...
NORTH OF 21N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS
TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FOUR TO
SIX HOURS...WERE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE
ACTIVE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH...AND
LITTLE TO NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAVE FOR THE ITCZ.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W. A
SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS...POKING ITS WAY INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
MT



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