[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 23 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N14W 2N29W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 25W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING FROM MEXICO ACROSS
THE GULF TO THE W ATLC. SUBTROPICAL JET IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW WITH WINDS TO 80 KT RUNNING ACROSS SE TEXAS TO OVER
LOUISIANA...AND A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING
FROM W TO E OVER THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED
ACROSS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AND IS PRODUCING RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE AREA. WEAK
RETURN FLOW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF W
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W SW TO THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICAN
BORDER. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE/SURFACE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N AND W GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W AND N OF
27N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND WILL SLOWLY DROP S OVER N
GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE N GULF WATERS
MOVING E.

CARIBBEAN...
THE EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLC THAT HAS WEAKENED YET THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT
REALLY CHANGED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS TRINIDAD TO JAMAICA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
ARE PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT THUS PREVENTED
ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS...PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED FROM A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... CONTINUES TO MOVE W FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-74W
INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. WITH THE TRADES...BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS FROM W PANAMA THROUGH HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS
W OF 45W AND IS UNDERLAID BY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA E TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
27N71W TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 65N52W THEN SE TO 20N37W. A
SHORTWAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS DROPPING A
COLD FRONT S ALONG 31N FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
27N61W TO 33N54W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE AREA FOR NOW. FARTHER E...A
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 26W AND N OF 18N
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 32N23W 26N23W TO 20N29W.
AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 30N FROM MADEIRA ISLANDS TO
21W AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N FROM 23W-30W.
FARTHER S...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET WITH WINDS LESS OF 80 KT
RUNNING ALONG 20N/22N.

$$
WALLACE



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