[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 23 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N14W 4N22W 1N32W 1N43W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
14W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
18W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 37W-43W AND S OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM
46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ZONAL WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING FROM MEXICO ACROSS
THE GULF TO THE W ATLC. SUBTROPICAL JET IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW WITH WINDS OF 80-100 KT CORE RUNNING ACROSS SE TEXAS TO THE
W FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING
FROM W TO E OVER THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED
ACROSS THE AREA FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND IS
PRODUCING RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE AREA...BUT WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF N OF
21N W OF 90W. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE SE U.S. WILL SLOWLY DROP S OVER N GULF DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE N GULF
WATERS BEGINNING LATER TODAY. OTHER AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL LOWS DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS NE ACROSS FL.

CARIBBEAN...
THE EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLC THAT HAS WEAKENED YET THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT
REALLY CHANGED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS TRINIDAD TO JAMAICA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
ARE PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT THUS PREVENTED
ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS...PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED FROM A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... CONTINUE TO MOVE W FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 64W-74W
INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. WITH THE TRADES...BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS FROM W PANAMA THROUGH HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS
W OF 45W AND IS UNDERLYING BY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH EXTENDS FROM S FL E TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N73W TO A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N60W ALONG 26N46W THEN SE TO 20N31W. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS DROPPING A COLD FRONT S
ALONG 32N FROM BERMUDA TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA BUT THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA FOR NOW.
FARTHER E...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 27W
AND N OF 21N WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 32N25W 27N24W
TO 21N28W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM 26N19W ACROSS THE W CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N21W AND AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 27N30W-32N26W.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING TO THE E ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANARY ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. FARTHER
S...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET WITH WINDS TO 90 KT RUNNING ALONG
20N/21N JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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