[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 16 FEB 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N18W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. WITH THE ITCZ HAVING
SUCH A SOUTHERN POSITION...THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS S
OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2W AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EQUATOR FROM 21W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE S OF 1N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 94W WITH S TO SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH FOG COVERS THE NE GULF FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER APALACHEE BAY TO NE TEXAS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING FROM OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT HELPING TO PRODUCE THE FAIR
SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL STALL FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE NW
GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING...ULTIMATELY BRINGING ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ISLANDS. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
VENEZUELA TO CUBA...THUS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS
LEAVING ONLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 70W-77W. SIMILAR CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 21N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER
HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W TO
OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT BRIDGES OVER INTO THE E GULF
OF MEXICO. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WNW FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA W
OF 55W. FARTHER E...A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE
AREA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING E ALONG 40W. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TO THE E ALONG 32N37W
ALONG 27N39W TO 24N53W WHERE IT CONTINUES SW AS A STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N38W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N AND W OF THE FRONT TO 65W. OVER
THE E ATLC...DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY
AND MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N25W AND
A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N23W. THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LOW HAS BECOME ELONGATED E TO W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 21W-28W. A NARROW SWATH
OF AFRICAN DUST IS STILL BEING WRAPPED INTO THE E SIDE OF THE
LOW EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SAHARA N ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST
CANARY ISLANDS THEN TO MADEIRA ISLAND. FARTHER S...STRONG N/NE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS PUSHED THE ITCZ AND ALL ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATOR AND FURTHER S...ALTHOUGH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS E IN A BAND
BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 10N.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net